Warren Buffett is not known for quick shots from the hip: As recently as Q3 2022, Buffett had established a position in Taiwan-based TSMC. With a volume of $4.1 billion, it immediately catapulted the chipmaker into the top 10 stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway.
In Q4, Berkshire suddenly divested 86% of its equity stake held in TSMC.
What could have made him change his mind?
Has Buffett fundamentally changed his mind about the future of the chip sector within one quarter?
For the semiconductor industry, the analysis firm McKinsey forecasts annual growth of 6-8% until 2030.
According to the PwC study, sales are expected to be strongest in the Asia-Paciﬁc region.
It is safe to assume that Buffett knows about all this and that he has certainly put out feelers as far as government circles.
Which is why the question inevitably arises: Has the geopolitical situation changed to Taiwan’s disadvantage in recent months? Is Buffett assuming an approaching war with China?
Astrologically his behavior can be understood:
From the summer, Jupiter’s transit triggered the T-square of Saturn/Taiwan, Mercury and Mars/China in Warren Buffett’s chart.
It can be assumed that he misinterpreted the overall situation (Jupiter opposition Mercury) when he bought the share package and could not correctly assess the danger of a possible escalation between China and Taiwan (Jupiter square Mars/China square Saturn/Taiwan).
What could have ultimately made Warren Buffett change his mind probably remains his secret.
His chart suggests that it may have been trusted people from the background (Moon in 12) who sent the Oracle of Omaha the crucial information (Jupiter in 3) about an impending conflict (Jupiter in Aries).
In the following months of Jupiter’s retrograde, Buffett lost more and more faith in his investment on the Taiwanese island (Jupiter square Saturn/Taiwan), with the consequence that Berkshire Hathaway drastically reduced its position in TSMC.